In a recent book titled “Time for a Model Change”, co-written by John Wormald and Graeme Maxton, the authors predict that the car industry is fast approaching a major crisis. Oil shortages, speed and the trend towards treating cars as simple appliances have put the car industry on a collision course with the market which will result in a major crisis appearing within ten years.

The authors say that three factors will change the car industry from the glamorous and wasteful business of today into something more efficient and much smaller. The three factors that will stimulate this change are-:

• The end of cheap fuel

• The implementation of electronic speed control systems and road tolling

• The commoditisation of cars

The authors looked at the world’s oil reserves and found that the published and generally accepted figures for crude oil reserves were very optimistic and likely reserves will be much lower than previously thought. Add to that the increasing demand from the motorising nations of Asia and Eastern Europe and it is highly likely that the era of cheap fuel is about to end. Even a gradual fuel shortage would be a challenge as there is no alternative to fossil fuel currently on the horizon.

The implementation of electronic tolling and speed control systems has already commenced and they are likely to become widespread within ten years according to the authors. The London congestion charge was a significant threshold, crossed in 2003, with the city charging a fee on vehicles entering the city centre. The system is now accepted and other British cities are looking at adopting a similar system. Traffic congestion across Europe and Asia would make such road pricing systems inevitable the authors contend.

Related to tolling are intelligent speed control systems which are now being developed in Britain and Europe. These developments have strong government support and there is no technological barrier to their implementation. These systems will enable the vehicle to know its location and the vehicle speed will be limited to the speed limit for that area. In any vehicle with GPS navigation, multiplexed electronic architecture and an engine management computer intelligent speed control is just a “software change” the authors argue.

In addition to these factors there is already a trend towards commoditisation of the car, particularly in America. This is due to a decade of stagnation in growth of the vehicle market, not only in America but also in Western Europe. “It’s when the consumer regards their car as just another appliance to be bought at minimum cost. They are no longer interested in model changes or other industry marketing devices” contend the authors. The result is that there is an increasing trend in mature markets, such as America and Europe, for manufacturers to increase sales by cutting prices and thus reducing margins. Niche models, motor shows and motor sports are already failing and would be irrelevant in a world of congestion, road pricing and external speed control say the authors.

“As it is the vehicle industry is only marginally profitable and it insists on bundling together the two fundamentally different benefits of the automobile; individual powered mobility and the enjoyment of dynamic driving” says Wormald.” “To have its central marketing themes of power, speed and freedom neutralized will hit the industry hard and the industry will not be able to go on making and marketing cars in the same way”.

The authors conclude that we will end up with much lighter, much simpler, much slower vehicles as personal means of transportation.

Editors note: A somewhat bleak outlook for the future of motor vehicles. Perhaps we should hang onto our Mopars for as long as possible to defer the evil day when we have to drive a speed limited car and pay tolls to go anywhere!